The Racing Formula · Intelligence
The Heat Check
Trainers and jockeys in form over the last 14 days in Britain and Ireland, the horses they run today, and the exact wins and runs behind every label.
Hot trainer + jockey combinations
Today's runners where the trainer and the jockey each qualify on their own.
Hot trainers
Strike rate over the form window, with at least 8 runs.
Hot jockeys
Strike rate over the form window, with at least 15 rides.
Meeting spotlight
How the Heat Check works
The Heat Check is a daily snapshot of recent form, built before racing from completed results only. It describes what has already happened. It is not a forecast, and these are form statistics, not betting advice.
What the labels mean
- RED HOT
- Won with 40% or more of their runs in the form window.
- IN FORM
- 30% up to the RED HOT line.
- ONE TO WATCH
- 20% up to the IN FORM line.
Labels are tested on the exact wins and runs, not on a rounded figure. Percentages are shown rounded down, always beside the exact wins/runs, so a 39.9% record is never shown as 40%.
Who qualifies
- Trainers need at least 8 runs and jockeys at least 15 rides in the window. Below that, nobody gets a label, however good the record.
- The window is the last 14 complete racing days, ending the day before the Heat Check date. Today's races never count.
- Only runs in Great Britain and Ireland count. Non-runners, void races and runs without a result count neither as a win nor as a run.
- A trainer and a jockey with the same name are treated as two different people.
The other figures
- Usual
- The same person's strike rate over the twelve months before the form window, shown only with at least 30 runs. "2.3× usual" divides the two. With no usual figure, there is no comparison.
- A/E (actual ÷ expected)
- Winners in the window divided by the winners the starting prices implied, after removing the bookmakers' margin. 1.00 is exactly what the market expected. It describes the completed window only, and is left out when the market expected too few winners to compare against.
- Level stakes
- What a £1 bet on every run in the window would have returned at starting price. It is a description of past results, not a strategy anyone followed.
Combinations and the meeting spotlight
A combination is a runner today whose trainer and jockey each qualify on their own. The meeting spotlight is the meeting with the most of today's runners from qualifying trainers or jockeys.
Freshness and corrections
Each day's Heat Check is saved once and never edited. If a figure has to be corrected, a new revision is published with the reason, and the original stays in the archive. Results that come in later are never added to a day's snapshot.
Small samples swing. A trainer on 3 from 8 is a short run of form, not a guarantee of anything. See our methodology for how every figure on the site is built.
Archive
The last 30 Heat Checks, each exactly as it was published that morning.
The Racing Formula is a free racing research site. Nothing here is betting advice, and no statistic, score or price on this site is a guarantee of anything. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, BeGambleAware and GamStop can help.