The Racing Formula · Intelligence
The Heat Check: USA
Who's hot on the US card, and where they run today. Trainers and jockeys in form over the last 14 days at the US and Canadian tracks we card, with the exact wins and runs behind every label. Post times in ET.
RED HOTIN FORMONE TO WATCHRED HOT is —+, IN FORM —+, ONE TO WATCH —+, only after — runs (trainers) or — rides (jockeys) in the last — days. Recent form, not a forecast.
Hot trainer + jockey combinations
Today's runners where the trainer and the jockey each qualify on their own board. One card per pairing; each runner links to its race. This is shared recent form, not a selection.
Hot trainers
Strike rate over the form window, with at least — runs.
Hot jockeys
Strike rate over the form window, with at least — rides.
Track in the spotlight
The track with the most of today's runners from a qualifying trainer or jockey. Each runner counts once, even when its trainer and jockey both qualify.
How the USA Heat Check works
The same daily snapshot of recent form as the UK Heat Check, built for the US and Canadian tracks we card, from completed results only. It describes what has already happened. It is not a forecast, and these are form statistics, not betting advice.
What the labels mean
- RED HOT
- Won with — or more of their runs in the form window.
- IN FORM
- — up to the RED HOT line.
- ONE TO WATCH
- — up to the IN FORM line.
Labels are tested on the exact wins and runs, and percentages are shown rounded down, always beside the exact wins/runs.
Who qualifies
- Trainers need at least — runs and jockeys at least — rides in the window. US jockeys ride several races a card, so the minimums are set higher than the UK's; each day's snapshot states the ones it was built with.
- The window is the last — complete racing days, ending the day before the Heat Check date—. Today's races never count.
- Only starts with a result at the US and Canadian tracks we card count. Scratches and races without a result count neither as a win nor as a run.
The minimum runs and the form window are set in each day's published snapshot and are shown here once it loads.
Names, not ids
The US results we use carry no trainer or jockey ids, so people are matched on a canonical form of their name: accents, punctuation and Jr/Sr dropped and the name parts sorted, so "Irad Ortiz Jr" and "Ortiz Jr., Irad" are one person. Two different people with exactly the same name would be counted together, and we cannot detect that. A ride listed at a track more than 500 miles from the same jockey's other rides that night, within two hours, is treated as a stale card listing and left out of that jockey's record; the trainer keeps the run. The day's notes say when that happened.
The other figures
- Usual
- The same person's strike rate before the form window—, shown only with at least — runs. Our US history starts on —, so "usual" covers months, not the UK's twelve.
- A/E (actual ÷ expected)
- Winners in the window divided by the winners the tote's odds implied, after removing the pool's take. 1.00 is exactly what the tote expected. It describes the completed window only, and is left out when the tote expected too few winners to compare against.
- Level stakes
- What a one-unit bet on every run in the window would have returned at the tote's payoffs. It is a description of past results, not a strategy anyone followed.
Times and dates
Post times are shown in US Eastern time (ET), with UK time beside them. A day's Heat Check is the New York date of the card, so a late West Coast race still belongs to that day.
Combinations and the track in the spotlight
A combination is a runner today whose trainer and jockey each qualify on their own. The track in the spotlight is the one with the most of today's runners from qualifying trainers or jockeys.
Freshness and corrections
Each day's Heat Check is saved once and never edited. If a figure has to be corrected, a new revision is published with the reason, and the original stays in the archive.
Small samples swing. A short run of wins is form, not a guarantee of anything. See our methodology for how every figure on the site is built.
Archive
The last 30 Heat Checks, each exactly as it was published that morning.
The Racing Formula is a free racing research site. Nothing here is betting advice, and no statistic, score or price on this site is a guarantee of anything. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, BeGambleAware and GamStop can help.